The field for the next debate this Thursday on Sept 12th is baked. Following is my original prediction with the actual results color coded – names in green made the next debates, red did not, red strikethrough didn’t make the cut and dropped out of the running.
- Folks who will move on to the next round and totally deserve it (i.e. no duh)
- Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Marianne Williamson
- Folks that will move on but really don’t need to be there (i.e. wasted spot)
- Andrew Yang, Cory Booker
- Folks that deserve to move on but probably won’t (i.e. damn shame)
- Amy Klobuchar, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Steve Bullock, Michael Bennet
- Folks on the cusp (i.e. hmmmmm)
- Pete Buttigieg, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan, Kirsten Gillibrand
- Folks who won’t make it, and who won’t be missed (i.e. good riddance!)
- Bill de Blasio, Beto O’Rourke, Tulsi Gabbard
Frankly, I am pretty surprised this thing largely went the way I thought it would. The biggest surprised to me is that Beto made the cut. And while I am surprised that Marianne Williamson didn’t make it, I am also a little heartened. Seeing sanity prevail and logically cutting people with no prior governing experience and crackpot ideas is wonderful. She added to the conversation, so glad she was there, but it is her time.
There are 3 other intrepid souls running not listed above. Joe Sestak and Tom Steyer took advantage of everyone being distracted by summer vacations to do a stealth entrance to the race. Because that is the best way to run a presidential campaign, on stealth. The third, of course, is my man Wayne Messam. I think at this point he is investing nothing in the race so there is really no cost to staying in or dropping out.